More than four months have passed since commercial vessels were last targeted by Houthi forces in the Red Sea, yet container lines remain hesitant to reinstate regular transits through the region. Analysis from Alphaliner suggests that, despite a prolonged lull in attacks and the introduction of a ceasefire, confidence among carriers has yet to fully recover.

Traffic levels through the Suez Canal continue to reflect this caution. During the first week of the year, volumes were still around 60% lower than during the same period in 2023, indicating that most operators are continuing to avoid the route for now. Container shipping has been the most heavily impacted segment, with Alphaliner reporting that box transits in the final quarter of 2025 fell by 86% year on year.

Fresh insight from Drewry Shipping Consultants’ recently launched Red Sea Diversions Tracker highlights some tentative movement back towards the canal. In week two, 26 container vessels were recorded transiting Suez, including five ships exceeding 8,000 teu operated by CMA CGM and MSC. These were joined by a number of smaller vessels deployed by niche carriers, many of which have continued to use the Red Sea throughout the disruption.

While this marked a notable increase from the 10 transits logged in week one, Drewry cautioned against reading too much into short-term comparisons. Seasonal factors linked to the Christmas and New Year period can significantly distort weekly data. At the same time, the number of voyages diverted around the Cape of Good Hope also rose sharply, climbing from 72 in the first week of the year to 175 in the second.

Before the onset of the Red Sea crisis, the Suez Canal typically accommodated roughly 55 northbound container transits each week, alongside around 25 southbound sailings.

The contrast with current activity illustrates just how profoundly the attacks disrupted established routing strategies. Prior to the crisis, carriers frequently balanced their networks by sending selected vessels through the Red Sea on backhaul legs, rather than diverting entire services thousands of miles around southern Africa.

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